* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 41 43 46 47 48 49 49 47 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 41 43 46 47 48 49 49 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 42 43 43 44 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 14 16 5 13 26 39 SHEAR DIR 241 232 236 257 278 263 268 288 301 262 240 244 242 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 142 142 140 139 139 138 136 134 131 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 49 48 48 53 58 56 54 51 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 1 0 -5 -18 -33 -24 -18 -17 -4 6 2 200 MB DIV 16 35 29 40 48 30 51 85 63 30 22 31 22 LAND (KM) 1447 1488 1534 1573 1608 1627 1625 1626 1647 1660 1700 1753 1829 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.2 117.8 118.9 120.0 121.2 122.4 123.8 125.0 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 14. 13. 11. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY