* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 38 40 40 40 40 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 25 26 27 27 30 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 24 26 26 27 30 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 20 19 13 10 16 10 18 13 16 14 24 23 SHEAR DIR 163 163 191 194 192 200 179 181 191 190 239 229 234 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 155 155 152 146 142 140 141 143 144 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 151 150 150 146 139 134 130 131 132 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 7 5 6 4 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 79 76 72 67 65 61 54 54 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 61 48 40 37 55 59 40 22 7 -4 -13 200 MB DIV -7 3 30 37 39 58 65 51 34 16 8 37 47 LAND (KM) 212 259 269 203 137 0 -129 -167 -90 -50 34 -33 -31 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.8 81.2 81.8 82.3 83.5 84.7 85.8 86.7 87.5 88.3 88.7 88.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 101 106 106 94 52 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 3 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 91.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY