* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 39 41 41 39 38 40 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 39 41 41 39 38 40 38 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 38 36 35 35 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 9 12 11 19 31 27 14 8 22 35 38 SHEAR DIR 241 253 278 285 274 264 298 312 316 270 244 250 274 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 141 141 140 138 136 135 135 134 131 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 48 49 52 50 46 49 45 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -5 -9 -20 -31 -27 -13 -20 -11 -8 2 -4 200 MB DIV 27 26 34 30 12 34 61 54 -7 10 33 18 -9 LAND (KM) 1477 1544 1616 1631 1636 1639 1689 1715 1713 1763 1862 1963 2059 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.7 10.1 11.2 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.8 115.8 116.7 117.6 119.4 121.0 122.0 122.8 124.1 125.8 127.3 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 6 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 2. 2. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 5. 3. 3. 3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY