* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 30 36 43 45 46 49 49 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 9 10 16 11 15 13 16 12 10 7 9 SHEAR DIR 172 189 187 163 162 172 140 157 148 169 164 213 217 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 155 155 154 152 143 140 139 140 141 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 150 150 149 146 136 133 131 132 131 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 7 5 7 4 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 77 79 71 69 66 61 61 57 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 48 57 51 45 49 51 71 56 60 49 37 16 2 200 MB DIV 5 22 31 52 59 81 54 56 33 26 29 22 0 LAND (KM) 256 299 247 179 110 -32 -162 -183 -108 -55 -57 -26 -1 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.3 81.9 82.5 83.8 85.0 86.0 87.1 88.3 89.2 89.8 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 101 106 99 82 19 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 24. 26. 29. 29. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 25. 26. 29. 29. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY