* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 39 37 37 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 39 37 37 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 39 39 38 37 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 13 13 14 21 26 25 17 21 31 40 43 SHEAR DIR 269 285 290 270 255 272 303 312 298 273 255 256 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 140 140 137 135 136 136 133 131 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.7 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 -55.9 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 47 50 52 52 48 48 47 45 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -11 -21 -26 -31 -10 -8 -6 -9 -13 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 18 32 24 9 11 49 56 14 -30 -7 39 15 10 LAND (KM) 1546 1612 1640 1648 1662 1695 1761 1818 1888 1986 2102 2226 2330 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.1 117.1 118.0 118.9 120.5 122.3 123.7 124.9 126.4 128.2 130.0 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY