* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 32 38 43 47 49 48 46 39 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 25 26 32 36 38 36 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 34 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 20 13 10 15 17 13 17 13 15 13 28 33 43 SHEAR DIR 198 201 171 171 173 149 144 158 177 202 204 207 228 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 150 147 143 141 141 139 140 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 148 146 144 139 133 129 128 126 126 133 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 77 76 76 71 68 58 56 57 52 48 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 45 42 50 43 57 60 55 59 41 20 -5 0 200 MB DIV 21 43 49 63 79 115 110 49 44 40 54 41 15 LAND (KM) 326 260 194 121 46 -77 -44 51 122 154 135 240 254 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.3 82.9 84.1 85.0 85.6 86.0 86.4 86.3 85.2 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 94 87 73 31 5 9999 9999 42 72 75 79 94 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 28. 25. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 28. 26. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY