* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 38 39 40 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 38 39 40 39 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 38 37 36 36 35 34 31 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 13 13 18 28 31 23 17 25 32 35 34 SHEAR DIR 273 288 273 263 270 297 315 316 268 263 256 262 247 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 140 138 137 136 136 135 133 131 130 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 51 52 52 53 52 50 47 45 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -15 -22 -24 -18 0 -5 0 1 -1 -10 1 200 MB DIV 40 28 8 2 25 42 32 -13 7 27 23 -19 -12 LAND (KM) 1624 1640 1663 1678 1698 1759 1822 1906 2002 2113 2208 2316 2416 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.1 118.1 119.0 119.9 121.5 123.1 124.7 126.2 127.8 129.2 131.0 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 7. 6. 4. 5. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY