* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 32 37 41 43 44 41 38 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 25 31 35 37 38 35 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 29 26 22 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 14 18 16 15 14 17 18 24 30 46 51 SHEAR DIR 195 172 166 174 167 162 186 205 214 199 215 215 249 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 149 145 143 141 141 139 139 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 144 142 136 131 129 128 125 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 5 6 4 7 5 6 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 77 72 66 66 60 56 55 54 47 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 47 44 46 57 32 38 25 4 -20 -12 -19 200 MB DIV 27 43 56 72 81 80 48 5 0 36 72 55 27 LAND (KM) 301 223 147 75 10 -10 35 126 191 125 136 209 102 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.9 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 81.3 81.9 82.5 83.1 84.1 84.8 85.4 86.0 86.4 86.2 85.2 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 89 77 42 4 1 0 32 73 77 77 81 76 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 24. 24. 22. 19. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 21. 18. 10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY