* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 37 38 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 38 37 38 37 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 35 35 34 33 33 32 29 25 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 13 18 22 28 20 13 18 31 39 40 44 SHEAR DIR 282 277 270 268 274 306 313 301 260 256 257 241 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 139 137 136 136 136 134 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 54 55 55 57 56 56 52 52 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -11 -19 -21 -27 -9 -4 -1 2 -7 -12 -10 1 200 MB DIV 33 17 12 27 39 56 13 -1 26 47 26 23 12 LAND (KM) 1645 1665 1690 1704 1723 1788 1864 1966 2064 2163 2269 2377 2344 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.0 118.9 119.7 120.4 122.0 123.6 125.4 127.0 128.5 129.9 131.7 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY