* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 42 49 54 58 59 54 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 22 24 29 36 43 49 53 53 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 23 28 30 33 37 41 43 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 14 13 11 12 7 11 10 17 29 39 53 SHEAR DIR 181 172 172 176 161 172 172 197 226 201 215 234 251 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 149 147 143 143 141 140 142 143 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 141 141 138 133 131 129 127 131 137 128 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 4 7 5 6 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 68 65 63 56 52 50 45 54 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 11 13 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 35 37 42 43 40 48 47 27 22 34 23 200 MB DIV 47 60 68 67 74 75 51 45 31 64 60 37 38 LAND (KM) 174 106 43 -16 -28 15 101 193 196 255 177 -11 306 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.7 22.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.3 82.8 83.4 83.9 84.7 85.2 85.5 85.7 84.9 82.8 79.3 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 9 15 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 67 11 3 0 9999 0 75 80 89 85 65 0 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 29. 35. 40. 40. 36. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 39. 34. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY