* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 39 39 39 38 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 39 39 39 38 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 32 28 24 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 14 19 25 25 19 17 28 38 41 47 35 SHEAR DIR 270 270 268 282 294 302 315 251 256 255 252 240 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 139 137 136 136 135 134 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 55 54 55 54 51 49 45 46 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -18 -18 -16 -9 8 -1 0 -2 -9 -14 0 5 200 MB DIV 18 17 34 39 48 17 -22 4 30 29 16 7 37 LAND (KM) 1673 1701 1734 1764 1798 1852 1946 2049 2161 2278 2356 2423 2198 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.0 119.9 120.8 121.7 123.3 124.9 126.6 128.3 129.9 131.2 133.0 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. 0. -1. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY