* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 49 52 53 52 49 44 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 29 32 38 42 46 47 45 42 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 26 27 35 37 39 42 43 42 37 31 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 11 11 18 15 17 14 23 27 36 50 45 SHEAR DIR 175 176 174 145 148 172 157 187 181 205 208 244 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 147 147 145 143 143 142 144 142 127 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 141 138 137 134 130 129 129 136 137 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 4 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 72 69 62 62 60 52 47 45 44 48 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 30 41 50 41 53 41 52 18 23 12 22 200 MB DIV 55 68 78 86 92 62 30 9 20 44 44 33 57 LAND (KM) 150 76 10 -21 0 50 146 222 294 226 84 129 484 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.9 19.9 21.2 23.0 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.5 83.1 83.5 83.9 84.5 84.8 84.9 84.7 83.4 80.7 77.3 74.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 6 11 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 52 4 1 9999 0 51 86 94 94 72 66 15 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 29. 26. 21. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 27. 24. 19. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY