* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * POLO EP182008 11/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 32 31 30 31 32 33 36 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 32 31 30 31 32 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 26 26 26 27 26 24 21 18 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 19 25 25 19 11 30 39 40 40 37 33 SHEAR DIR 283 296 303 301 315 316 274 255 260 258 256 265 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 139 139 136 136 137 135 133 131 128 127 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 56 58 55 56 49 46 44 41 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -11 -16 -14 -12 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 26 32 45 40 42 2 -9 7 23 9 0 29 39 LAND (KM) 1785 1812 1842 1876 1913 1970 2051 2158 2284 2403 2439 2268 2111 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.2 121.0 121.9 122.7 124.4 126.0 127.8 129.6 131.4 133.0 134.6 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP182008 POLO 11/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182008 POLO 11/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY