* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 52 54 57 55 53 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 27 31 36 42 48 49 53 51 40 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 28 30 32 36 39 42 43 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 11 12 12 9 9 9 17 17 30 36 46 SHEAR DIR 160 143 125 135 138 169 187 200 202 211 226 242 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 146 146 144 143 143 144 147 147 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 140 137 137 133 130 129 132 138 140 127 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 7 5 7 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 72 67 64 63 60 51 48 49 43 46 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 8 9 9 9 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 44 51 41 46 50 44 37 36 20 23 18 200 MB DIV 73 81 98 83 67 41 51 12 45 41 50 36 12 LAND (KM) 136 70 10 -13 5 52 137 224 322 311 152 -9 223 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.6 83.1 83.5 83.8 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.0 82.6 80.0 77.4 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 7 10 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 4 1 0 0 52 89 95 96 76 84 1 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 0. -4. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 21. 27. 30. 34. 33. 31. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 27. 29. 32. 30. 28. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY