* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 32 38 45 51 54 58 54 52 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 32 38 45 51 54 58 54 47 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 38 43 46 46 40 35 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 10 11 7 6 7 9 14 24 36 37 47 SHEAR DIR 110 108 122 144 157 186 226 187 221 216 249 253 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 148 146 146 146 146 147 147 142 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 139 137 135 133 133 136 137 133 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 7 5 7 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 65 63 59 52 53 47 49 50 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 12 11 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 50 41 34 38 24 32 21 14 20 24 -6 200 MB DIV 69 77 73 57 35 39 17 30 52 45 55 37 28 LAND (KM) 199 136 86 53 49 100 174 276 352 226 40 129 387 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.9 21.0 22.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.0 82.4 82.7 83.0 83.5 83.7 83.5 82.5 81.0 78.9 76.4 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 7 10 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 73 17 3 2 2 76 99 97 81 73 55 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 2. -2. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 31. 35. 31. 29. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 33. 29. 27. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY