* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN AL172008 11/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 52 59 62 62 60 55 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 52 59 62 62 60 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 48 54 59 58 41 38 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 4 2 0 1 2 10 14 26 31 33 38 SHEAR DIR 86 107 149 159 54 210 322 193 217 231 258 255 263 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 150 150 148 149 148 150 154 149 137 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 140 140 140 136 135 133 137 146 139 122 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 69 65 61 54 56 52 47 52 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 35 26 19 20 6 15 15 13 3 -2 -30 200 MB DIV 72 72 62 37 41 38 9 25 34 36 31 1 -7 LAND (KM) 181 172 172 150 140 182 278 330 337 199 11 -33 21 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.0 20.1 20.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.1 81.9 81.5 80.0 77.5 76.1 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 5 11 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 70 65 65 6 6 9 88 83 79 94 50 9999 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 33. 38. 40. 38. 34. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 27. 34. 37. 37. 35. 30. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY