* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 11/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 51 59 62 62 60 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 51 59 62 62 60 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 47 54 59 59 45 36 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 3 2 1 2 2 8 11 26 30 32 36 SHEAR DIR 82 107 136 158 37 167 323 181 216 231 259 254 263 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 148 148 149 148 150 154 150 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 142 141 138 136 135 133 137 146 141 125 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 70 65 61 56 56 52 48 52 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 36 28 20 20 7 13 16 16 4 -2 -28 200 MB DIV 69 74 61 37 40 37 10 23 33 34 29 0 -4 LAND (KM) 194 178 172 150 130 155 251 309 339 187 0 -43 2 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.8 20.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.0 82.3 82.1 81.9 81.5 80.0 77.5 76.1 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 5 11 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 74 69 65 22 4 8 90 83 79 90 70 9999 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 12. 8. 4. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 33. 38. 41. 39. 35. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 27. 34. 37. 37. 35. 31. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 11/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY