* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN AL172008 11/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 62 68 71 66 62 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 62 68 71 66 62 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 55 63 69 70 67 50 48 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 5 1 5 0 8 10 20 26 27 33 34 SHEAR DIR 161 199 263 348 144 177 161 199 205 229 236 260 268 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 147 146 148 147 148 150 149 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 135 135 136 135 135 133 134 140 140 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 9 7 9 7 8 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 65 60 55 52 51 46 41 38 37 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 15 12 10 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 23 18 23 19 16 31 32 23 36 15 -2 200 MB DIV 80 53 39 45 34 5 0 43 17 6 -8 9 -28 LAND (KM) 129 113 96 80 65 106 200 279 349 287 101 -24 163 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.3 19.0 20.1 21.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.2 82.3 82.5 82.6 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.2 80.9 78.8 76.6 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 9 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 3 2 2 2 95 92 84 84 78 9999 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 8. 5. 1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 2. -1. -3. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 31. 38. 43. 39. 35. 29. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 32. 38. 41. 36. 32. 25. 22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY