* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVENTEEN AL172008 11/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 55 61 68 67 62 55 47 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 55 61 68 67 62 49 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 48 55 60 63 62 57 46 38 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 2 4 2 4 12 11 27 28 36 47 60 SHEAR DIR 143 220 258 151 164 191 194 214 209 236 239 257 260 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 147 146 146 146 145 144 138 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 136 135 134 134 133 132 132 128 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 9 7 8 6 8 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 72 67 63 60 55 51 52 50 45 41 41 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 16 15 13 10 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 13 24 22 8 24 19 16 13 13 -4 -24 200 MB DIV 69 51 51 43 34 7 32 48 25 39 -7 -3 15 LAND (KM) 118 92 84 113 146 192 290 348 255 141 -6 179 513 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.8 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.8 83.0 82.9 82.3 81.3 80.0 78.5 76.0 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 5 23 97 94 80 71 83 2 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 9. 5. 0. -5. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 38. 38. 35. 28. 20. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 18. 25. 31. 38. 37. 32. 25. 17. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 SEVENTEEN 11/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY