* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 52 60 65 66 60 51 42 34 27 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 52 60 65 66 60 51 41 34 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 53 59 63 62 55 43 34 26 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 6 4 6 9 13 24 40 40 51 54 60 SHEAR DIR 156 173 178 238 237 186 228 219 238 244 263 268 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.2 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 148 148 148 146 144 138 128 128 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 136 136 135 135 135 132 131 127 118 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -54.2 -54.9 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 55 51 51 49 45 44 40 43 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 13 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 27 27 24 32 31 24 19 9 2 -14 -43 200 MB DIV 60 54 41 23 11 13 44 17 17 -2 2 -3 -10 LAND (KM) 112 123 149 176 192 276 353 261 158 14 128 377 655 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.3 82.4 82.6 82.8 82.8 82.0 81.1 80.2 78.7 76.6 74.1 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 7 10 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 8 20 83 94 79 75 83 13 18 23 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 3. -4. -10. -16. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 23. 29. 31. 26. 20. 10. 2. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 17. 25. 30. 31. 25. 17. 7. -1. -8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY