* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 68 73 80 82 76 68 59 48 39 30 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 68 73 80 82 76 68 52 41 32 23 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 62 67 71 78 81 79 71 54 45 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 7 6 1 12 14 33 35 41 37 50 47 SHEAR DIR 118 192 231 240 249 235 228 219 240 251 281 266 283 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 148 148 145 143 141 132 128 126 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 137 135 135 131 129 128 122 117 112 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 53 52 47 46 44 45 44 45 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 16 15 17 16 13 10 9 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 21 26 28 33 28 12 7 7 6 -1 1 -5 200 MB DIV 78 54 26 20 46 50 23 25 29 21 22 -3 -33 LAND (KM) 171 201 241 281 315 350 233 149 30 30 279 480 634 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.8 23.4 24.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.0 82.1 82.2 82.2 81.8 80.9 79.9 78.7 77.0 74.8 73.0 71.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 11 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 69 87 87 79 86 86 48 18 15 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 29. 32. 26. 19. 11. 0. -8. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 18. 23. 30. 32. 26. 18. 9. -2. -11. -20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY