* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 82 88 92 95 91 81 69 51 39 29 25 V (KT) LAND 65 75 82 88 92 95 91 81 61 43 31 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 65 76 85 90 92 92 88 80 61 50 38 29 23 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 9 6 10 18 27 39 44 54 50 55 39 SHEAR DIR 195 234 233 240 213 242 222 232 242 261 276 276 272 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 146 145 142 137 128 125 127 124 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 137 135 132 130 128 123 115 113 114 111 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 54 53 51 52 48 45 41 39 42 46 42 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 17 14 12 11 7 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 29 33 37 21 16 18 20 -8 2 -6 0 200 MB DIV 81 52 32 32 30 28 15 19 21 23 19 14 -1 LAND (KM) 265 313 353 365 326 223 131 29 31 206 386 609 877 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.3 25.8 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.8 81.8 81.8 81.7 80.9 80.0 78.9 77.7 76.2 74.4 72.7 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 66 80 82 81 78 85 84 24 7 11 24 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -19. -24. -28. -29. PERSISTENCE 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. 6. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 22. 26. 29. 25. 15. 5. -12. -23. -33. -37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 26. 16. 4. -14. -26. -36. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY