* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 75 77 78 74 63 49 36 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 75 77 78 74 54 44 32 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 72 73 74 74 71 53 49 38 28 20 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 15 13 15 20 31 39 57 54 64 62 54 SHEAR DIR 204 210 230 222 216 245 226 242 251 266 271 277 294 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.6 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 144 141 130 125 125 125 120 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 135 135 133 129 127 117 112 112 112 108 99 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 50 52 52 46 48 46 49 48 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 17 16 16 18 16 14 11 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 14 21 30 27 9 0 1 15 6 -10 -14 -71 200 MB DIV 75 51 41 41 46 45 45 40 -3 12 -8 -10 -39 LAND (KM) 315 357 360 334 275 161 66 -18 146 330 479 713 934 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.9 22.9 24.0 24.9 26.4 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 81.8 81.7 81.5 81.2 80.3 79.2 78.1 76.8 75.3 73.6 71.8 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 81 81 81 80 82 85 73 0 10 24 22 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -20. -26. -33. -37. -39. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 8. -1. -14. -27. -39. -47. -56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 9. -1. -16. -29. -42. -50. -58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY