* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 83 83 80 67 55 41 31 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 83 83 80 60 50 36 26 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 80 81 80 77 70 53 44 35 27 21 16 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 16 19 19 34 38 42 48 50 60 50 49 SHEAR DIR 219 203 195 211 221 222 237 240 259 261 271 283 304 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 147 145 142 135 127 125 125 123 119 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 134 133 131 128 122 114 112 110 108 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 44 47 46 44 47 45 45 40 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 18 19 18 17 19 14 13 10 10 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 20 37 21 15 16 23 24 10 20 -12 -10 -35 200 MB DIV 50 60 41 48 43 25 14 14 31 47 11 -27 -37 LAND (KM) 359 339 328 270 210 94 -8 73 261 428 562 722 875 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.3 26.3 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.5 81.3 80.9 80.5 79.5 78.5 77.1 75.7 74.1 72.7 71.2 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 81 79 82 88 91 78 2 24 16 23 18 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -36. -38. -38. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -9. -20. -32. -41. -50. -59. -65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. -8. -20. -34. -44. -53. -62. -68. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY