* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 93 93 93 84 70 56 41 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 91 93 93 93 84 54 45 30 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 91 94 93 92 85 55 50 41 33 25 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 17 19 20 38 39 43 49 54 56 60 62 SHEAR DIR 195 193 213 231 216 235 243 244 261 265 281 290 299 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 147 147 141 132 126 125 125 125 123 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 133 134 127 117 111 110 110 110 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 48 51 51 48 45 41 41 41 44 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 19 19 18 15 13 12 13 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 1 26 14 7 15 19 11 22 16 0 -21 -17 -41 200 MB DIV 87 87 75 59 55 29 11 12 15 3 -5 -47 -54 LAND (KM) 327 302 285 235 175 15 -20 94 212 319 444 577 700 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.4 81.1 80.8 80.3 79.8 78.6 77.6 76.7 75.9 74.9 73.7 72.4 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 81 86 91 95 92 28 9999 26 18 17 22 17 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -16. -22. -27. -32. -36. -40. -42. -43. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 7. -2. -16. -29. -42. -53. -65. -75. -84. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 8. 8. 8. -1. -15. -29. -44. -56. -68. -78. -86. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY