* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 102 99 94 78 59 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 103 102 99 94 62 49 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 105 105 102 97 66 58 48 37 29 23 19 15 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 20 17 29 38 48 55 45 43 44 40 41 SHEAR DIR 222 226 227 220 221 238 248 262 271 278 283 288 284 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 143 134 126 125 124 124 123 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 134 133 129 119 111 109 108 107 105 104 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 46 49 50 47 47 50 53 48 38 40 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 18 15 14 10 9 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 9 13 12 13 8 2 21 0 -4 -17 -45 200 MB DIV 82 62 56 61 54 53 -10 12 25 -4 -50 -43 -22 LAND (KM) 305 275 222 144 61 -40 60 145 207 260 306 306 273 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.5 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.6 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.7 80.2 79.6 79.0 77.8 76.8 76.1 75.5 75.1 74.6 74.6 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 87 93 94 88 75 9999 32 21 29 15 22 22 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -18. -25. -32. -37. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -7. -10. -15. -26. -36. -43. -45. -44. -45. -44. -41. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 0. -6. -22. -40. -60. -73. -86. -95.-102.-103. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 2. 0. -6. -22. -41. -62. -75. -89. -98.-105.-105. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY