* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 105 100 90 70 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 108 105 100 90 57 44 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 107 103 97 61 54 45 37 30 25 20 16 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 20 29 40 37 45 38 43 41 40 42 40 SHEAR DIR 215 218 217 217 232 245 258 266 262 281 276 278 272 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 142 133 130 125 125 123 122 122 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 132 128 118 113 108 107 106 104 104 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 52 50 47 50 46 46 46 40 35 33 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 17 19 17 13 11 10 9 12 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 11 6 25 0 10 13 -4 0 -24 -30 -49 200 MB DIV 71 89 72 73 63 2 -5 17 7 -27 -34 6 -32 LAND (KM) 261 216 152 83 16 -27 47 106 146 181 213 232 261 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.0 79.5 78.9 78.3 77.2 76.5 76.1 75.8 75.7 75.7 75.7 75.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 94 95 91 81 41 9999 13 32 26 25 25 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -11. -21. -29. -37. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -12. -20. -32. -40. -42. -43. -42. -43. -42. -39. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -6. -15. -36. -55. -68. -79. -89.-100.-106.-109. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 0. -5. -15. -35. -55. -69. -82. -92.-103.-109.-111. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY