* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 112 99 87 60 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 120 112 88 70 51 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 121 115 107 75 63 54 45 36 29 23 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 30 36 38 45 45 43 48 46 46 42 41 SHEAR DIR 219 228 226 241 245 251 264 269 274 283 278 282 272 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 141 136 130 128 126 125 123 122 122 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 130 127 121 114 111 108 107 105 104 105 105 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 48 47 48 46 41 34 32 31 30 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 14 15 11 10 11 11 9 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 19 24 16 10 25 20 12 2 -17 -34 -77 200 MB DIV 57 46 35 50 31 8 8 -6 -21 -55 -28 -13 -14 LAND (KM) 184 116 50 0 -33 43 92 129 172 205 216 208 172 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.0 78.4 77.8 77.2 76.4 75.8 75.6 75.6 75.6 75.6 75.8 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 2 2 2 1 0 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 92 86 74 20 9999 13 37 32 27 27 27 23 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -33. -43. -53. -58. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -12. -22. -31. -46. -54. -55. -55. -52. -52. -50. -45. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -9. -21. -33. -59. -80. -91.-104.-116.-126.-130.-131. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -8. -21. -33. -60. -80. -93.-107.-119.-129.-133.-133. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY