* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 102 86 72 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 116 88 69 62 34 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 106 80 75 64 52 42 35 29 23 19 15 SHEAR (KTS) 27 36 40 41 41 48 45 45 40 43 41 40 41 SHEAR DIR 236 238 242 244 247 255 274 273 277 279 282 277 273 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 139 134 131 127 126 124 123 122 121 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 125 119 116 110 108 106 106 105 104 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 48 49 50 51 51 43 38 32 30 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 15 13 12 13 10 10 10 10 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 17 15 8 0 2 27 21 9 -13 -35 -60 -67 200 MB DIV 58 51 30 20 19 13 18 -7 -18 -42 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 91 22 -11 -30 19 87 140 164 181 188 210 185 145 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.3 23.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.1 77.3 76.9 76.5 76.0 75.6 75.5 75.7 76.0 76.3 76.6 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 82 57 0 9999 0 37 31 28 25 19 11 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -24. -36. -46. -55. -60. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR -7. -18. -31. -41. -58. -65. -64. -60. -56. -54. -51. -46. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -18. -34. -48. -77. -95.-106.-116.-126.-134.-137.-136. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -18. -34. -48. -77. -96.-107.-118.-129.-137.-140.-138. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY