* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 11/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 52 47 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 49 53 57 59 59 58 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 46 50 54 58 59 57 55 SHEAR (KTS) 22 27 16 18 21 22 23 20 23 25 30 49 34 SHEAR DIR 251 271 278 274 288 290 285 288 291 304 311 305 289 SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 99 99 98 96 94 94 96 97 97 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 84 84 82 80 79 78 80 81 81 82 82 200 MB T (C) -57.9 -58.0 -58.1 -58.0 -58.1 -58.3 -58.4 -58.9 -58.0 -57.6 -57.6 -58.8 -60.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 47 45 44 42 41 44 45 43 48 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 91 90 81 68 52 32 5 19 13 6 -16 -37 -59 200 MB DIV -4 1 -1 2 -17 0 -23 -9 -9 -24 -39 -1 -21 LAND (KM) 2036 2008 1980 1965 1950 1988 2018 2025 1994 1939 1863 1799 1786 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.2 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.6 35.2 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 37.8 37.6 37.3 36.9 36.0 35.5 35.4 35.9 36.8 37.8 38.0 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 3 1 1 3 4 3 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 27. 32. 37. 41. 42. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 35. 34. 28. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. 27. 22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 11/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 11/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY