* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * PALOMA AL172008 11/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 94 81 69 57 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 83 67 62 50 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 82 66 63 58 48 38 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 41 42 41 46 53 50 50 45 41 43 45 49 SHEAR DIR 238 242 244 246 246 265 274 277 284 280 278 275 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 132 131 130 125 123 122 124 124 123 121 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 116 114 114 108 106 104 106 106 106 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 48 49 48 47 37 37 40 36 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 10 11 11 8 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 6 1 -5 -3 -16 17 2 -18 -40 -57 -69 -111 200 MB DIV 63 46 27 20 8 23 -25 -39 -51 -30 -1 -4 -11 LAND (KM) -11 -38 -17 15 47 122 165 174 154 145 137 139 171 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.0 76.8 76.5 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 76.1 76.6 77.1 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 4 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 9999 0 0 13 30 22 22 22 21 14 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -28. -36. -43. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -7. -19. -30. -40. -57. -65. -66. -64. -60. -60. -57. -53. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -12. -25. -37. -49. -75. -93.-108.-118.-122.-126.-129.-130. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -24. -36. -48. -74. -93.-109.-120.-125.-129.-132.-132. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY