* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 11/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 47 51 57 60 62 62 61 57 52 48 V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 47 51 57 60 62 62 61 57 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 39 42 46 51 54 57 60 61 59 56 54 SHEAR (KTS) 25 16 18 19 18 22 23 22 26 29 46 37 33 SHEAR DIR 270 278 272 286 289 291 288 281 292 303 300 296 301 SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 98 97 96 95 95 97 96 95 95 97 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 82 82 80 78 79 81 81 80 80 82 80 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -58.3 -58.1 -58.0 -58.0 -58.0 -58.7 -57.8 -57.4 -57.4 -57.9 -59.6 -61.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 40 39 41 38 41 42 40 44 48 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 71 54 37 24 18 18 21 -8 -20 -48 -34 200 MB DIV -2 -1 1 -15 -1 2 0 -10 -27 -18 -20 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1968 1935 1901 1896 1892 1915 1924 1909 1860 1803 1756 1727 1697 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.5 33.9 34.2 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.9 35.7 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 38.3 38.2 37.9 37.6 37.2 37.2 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.2 38.5 37.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 37. 40. 42. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 26. 29. 32. 34. 33. 29. 24. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 21. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 27. 22. 18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY