* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * PALOMA AL172008 11/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 72 60 49 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 68 63 52 40 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 68 64 56 50 39 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 43 43 41 49 52 52 54 51 47 36 42 44 54 SHEAR DIR 244 251 250 251 262 278 277 288 289 286 280 278 261 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 129 127 125 124 123 122 121 120 118 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 115 113 111 107 106 106 105 104 103 102 101 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 44 47 49 45 43 35 34 29 29 26 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 10 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -12 -5 -4 18 26 -1 -12 -32 -63 -80 -93 200 MB DIV 48 30 26 10 2 -10 -26 -56 -75 -6 -27 10 24 LAND (KM) -44 -25 17 50 82 144 154 169 182 184 166 189 198 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.2 76.7 76.5 76.2 75.9 75.9 76.0 76.3 76.8 77.5 78.1 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 0 16 33 25 22 20 8 16 17 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -6. -15. -24. -33. -48. -56. -60. -61. -58. -58. -56. -55. PERSISTENCE -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -11. -7. -4. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -36. -48. -69. -83. -98.-106.-108.-109.-108.-109. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -13. -25. -36. -48. -69. -83. -98.-106.-108.-109.-108.-109. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2512.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY