* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 11/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 50 52 52 48 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 50 52 52 48 44 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 52 54 55 52 46 41 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 20 24 25 24 22 22 33 35 54 52 44 SHEAR DIR 277 270 278 272 280 270 280 288 324 325 307 296 308 SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 96 97 98 98 100 101 101 100 100 99 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 81 82 82 84 84 84 84 83 81 81 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.8 -57.7 -57.7 -57.9 -57.7 -57.8 -57.4 -57.7 -57.9 -57.6 -57.8 -59.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 37 37 37 38 39 40 36 38 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 69 53 40 23 7 18 3 -10 -30 -47 -65 -49 200 MB DIV -4 -4 -21 -20 -6 0 -14 -22 -36 -45 -39 -45 -8 LAND (KM) 1906 1895 1885 1915 1945 2001 2041 2051 2048 2047 2046 2041 2041 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.1 32.6 32.2 31.9 31.7 31.6 31.6 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.2 37.9 37.7 37.8 38.3 38.9 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 20. 15. 8. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 18. 14. 7. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY