* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * PALOMA AL172008 11/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 46 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 44 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 51 44 42 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 40 42 44 50 51 54 54 48 46 43 52 48 53 SHEAR DIR 237 239 245 253 261 276 277 279 275 272 276 274 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 127 126 122 121 120 121 121 121 119 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 115 112 109 105 104 103 104 104 105 103 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 41 37 35 28 28 28 29 30 28 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 9 8 11 10 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 18 26 23 42 26 3 -19 -32 -74 -92 -100 200 MB DIV 48 38 15 -2 8 -63 -56 -78 -11 -3 0 -19 3 LAND (KM) -37 -49 -9 34 79 133 142 126 106 99 108 151 189 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.7 77.4 77.1 76.8 76.5 76.7 77.0 77.2 77.5 77.9 78.4 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 1 19 28 18 12 15 20 22 16 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -8. -14. -20. -30. -40. -47. -51. -54. -57. -58. -58. PERSISTENCE -11. -17. -21. -24. -26. -26. -26. -23. -17. -11. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -14. -24. -34. -44. -58. -73. -85. -94. -96. -96. -91. -90. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -14. -24. -34. -44. -58. -73. -85. -94. -96. -96. -91. -90. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2511.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY