* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 11/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 44 48 47 46 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 44 48 47 46 44 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 50 51 50 47 47 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 26 27 23 24 17 21 28 39 40 36 33 SHEAR DIR 272 278 273 278 280 269 291 315 336 309 285 295 262 SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 97 97 98 99 100 101 99 97 97 98 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 81 81 82 82 84 85 83 81 82 84 85 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.5 -57.5 -57.6 -57.7 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.8 -57.4 -58.1 -60.0 -61.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 39 37 37 37 37 38 39 39 37 41 46 49 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 71 56 44 23 17 17 6 -1 -16 -29 -20 7 -1 200 MB DIV -6 -27 -19 -7 0 -8 -20 -46 -13 -13 -14 14 8 LAND (KM) 1906 1910 1914 1937 1961 1992 2007 1985 1930 1868 1816 1759 1746 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.5 33.3 32.9 32.5 32.3 32.4 32.9 33.5 34.5 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 38.5 38.3 38.2 38.1 38.2 38.6 39.4 40.3 40.6 40.5 39.8 37.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 41. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 11/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY