* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * PALOMA AL172008 11/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 43 44 49 52 50 57 46 50 46 46 47 51 58 SHEAR DIR 249 246 251 259 270 275 283 273 285 273 284 273 271 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 128 125 122 120 120 122 121 120 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 114 112 108 105 102 102 105 104 104 104 103 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 -54.7 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 44 42 41 41 39 33 31 33 34 31 30 27 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 7 7 7 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 23 16 34 32 8 -18 -44 -73 -93 -115 -121 200 MB DIV 26 20 8 -17 -39 -67 -71 -45 -1 -16 -21 -16 24 LAND (KM) -37 -54 -20 16 54 92 95 95 101 131 164 206 289 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.5 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.0 77.8 77.6 77.4 77.1 77.1 77.4 77.4 77.1 76.9 77.0 77.1 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 6 23 23 23 23 21 14 15 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -34. -42. -49. -53. -55. -59. PERSISTENCE -14. -23. -31. -36. -40. -40. -38. -35. -29. -20. -9. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -14. -25. -36. -45. -58. -70. -78. -84. -87. -81. -72. -68. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -14. -25. -36. -45. -58. -70. -78. -84. -87. -81. -72. -68. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -50.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :3342.7 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY