* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * PALOMA AL172008 11/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 0 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 49 54 57 52 52 52 39 51 48 57 54 62 N/A SHEAR DIR 247 252 261 273 272 284 275 276 267 266 271 271 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 124 122 119 118 117 116 116 115 114 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 109 108 105 102 101 101 100 100 99 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.4 -55.0 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 39 38 36 35 25 25 30 33 31 31 37 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 7 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 14 41 56 25 12 -16 -34 -72 -105 -89 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 3 -15 -19 -53 -57 -67 -2 -6 -1 6 48 N/A LAND (KM) -31 -10 10 36 67 109 138 161 166 121 88 89 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.9 24.5 25.1 26.0 27.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.1 78.1 78.2 78.2 78.3 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.3 79.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 0 0 0 13 18 18 13 11 12 6 7 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -16. -28. -38. -47. -52. -56. -61. PERSISTENCE -10. -18. -24. -28. -32. -32. -30. -28. -23. -16. -7. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -26. -32. -43. -52. -59. -65. -68. -64. -56. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -18. -26. -32. -43. -52. -59. -65. -68. -64. -56. -53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172008 PALOMA 11/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2002.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008 PALOMA 11/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY