* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 11/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 37 37 36 33 33 34 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 37 37 36 33 33 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 30 29 27 25 24 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 16 23 26 21 24 26 38 51 37 36 33 SHEAR DIR 281 306 300 285 307 322 316 282 259 228 245 258 230 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.5 24.4 23.1 22.5 22.2 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 140 137 133 125 121 107 100 94 88 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 133 132 130 126 116 112 103 97 87 78 67 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -56.1 -58.4 -59.5 -60.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 7 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 63 52 48 50 50 53 57 47 38 28 31 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -19 -30 -21 -25 -54 -34 0 -14 -94 -32 10 200 MB DIV 21 23 -10 -31 -42 -82 12 15 59 38 12 42 67 LAND (KM) 438 354 300 288 250 222 282 499 708 880 804 770 528 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.8 23.0 25.5 29.4 34.5 38.2 39.8 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 63.6 64.9 66.4 67.9 71.1 73.9 74.8 72.5 66.2 58.7 55.3 54.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 13 16 29 36 25 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 54 47 46 28 21 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 9. 10. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 8. 9. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 11/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 11/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY