* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 11/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 34 36 36 36 33 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 34 36 36 36 33 31 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 29 26 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 21 23 21 22 18 34 40 56 59 52 40 SHEAR DIR 296 300 289 295 309 319 291 257 240 237 270 271 279 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.7 26.2 23.4 23.1 22.9 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 138 137 136 133 122 120 102 100 95 92 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 131 132 131 126 112 113 99 96 86 80 77 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -56.9 -58.1 -58.3 -60.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 3 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 50 46 48 49 46 53 49 38 32 38 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -15 -28 -17 -1 -38 -56 3 -2 -67 -61 -8 7 200 MB DIV 13 -5 -23 -30 -45 -45 24 31 53 26 4 -24 -5 LAND (KM) 406 326 300 261 182 233 305 476 663 918 1014 1113 1049 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 22.0 23.8 26.8 31.2 35.5 37.1 36.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 64.7 66.1 67.8 69.5 73.0 75.4 75.3 70.8 62.8 55.6 52.3 50.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 16 16 15 13 21 35 34 21 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 50 49 45 37 32 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 11/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 11/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY