* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 11/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 39 40 37 31 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 32 29 32 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 27 27 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 19 21 22 32 29 30 34 34 36 39 40 SHEAR DIR 239 201 203 202 198 201 203 203 197 183 171 181 185 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 145 142 137 139 139 139 139 138 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 151 148 145 140 133 135 136 136 137 135 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 75 75 79 74 67 58 59 51 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 85 86 75 65 62 77 73 49 34 36 38 21 200 MB DIV 108 119 135 126 110 110 85 62 9 2 -3 -45 -17 LAND (KM) 66 113 73 33 -39 -49 78 188 319 454 519 619 705 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.4 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.4 8.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.1 82.0 82.9 83.8 85.4 86.6 87.6 88.7 89.9 91.0 92.1 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 62 71 79 15 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -29. -37. -44. -47. -50. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 3. -4. -11. -18. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 7. 1. -7. -15. -21. -27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY