* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 11/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 32 29 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 26 26 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 24 23 27 35 41 37 34 33 34 28 29 SHEAR DIR 212 217 212 206 201 191 193 191 174 163 162 173 172 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 145 143 136 136 139 139 139 139 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 150 148 144 140 132 132 137 135 135 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 75 71 73 74 77 71 64 54 58 47 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 8 10 10 10 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 72 63 54 64 75 51 37 29 18 17 18 200 MB DIV 133 135 118 116 96 95 64 35 17 16 -32 -50 -48 LAND (KM) 81 131 92 50 -18 -77 13 149 295 401 436 511 544 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.4 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.1 82.0 82.9 83.7 84.9 86.0 87.2 88.5 89.5 90.5 91.5 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 74 83 23 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -30. -39. -46. -51. -51. -51. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -16. -24. -27. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 3. -3. -11. -19. -26. -29. -32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY