* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 11/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 38 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 36 31 28 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 26 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 21 26 31 31 47 43 42 40 35 36 29 SHEAR DIR 222 213 206 192 190 197 189 178 173 164 166 175 176 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 145 144 139 136 138 139 139 139 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 149 146 142 139 133 132 134 136 136 137 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 76 74 73 70 60 58 52 51 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 88 82 77 74 70 86 76 68 48 34 38 37 36 200 MB DIV 152 146 145 105 96 104 59 37 45 30 -25 -33 -6 LAND (KM) 112 160 130 95 48 -54 -57 76 210 331 403 460 464 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 10.8 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.7 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.2 82.0 82.7 83.3 84.4 85.3 86.6 87.8 88.9 90.2 91.5 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 80 88 71 29 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -21. -33. -44. -53. -59. -60. -59. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -5. -12. -21. -28. -31. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 3. -5. -14. -23. -31. -34. -34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED