* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 11/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 20 19 16 18 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 27 25 30 32 36 36 38 36 33 39 36 37 36 SHEAR DIR 226 217 210 205 204 204 202 187 180 168 169 157 163 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 144 142 140 136 130 125 122 121 122 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 143 142 140 137 134 131 126 121 119 118 119 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 78 75 78 78 79 80 66 62 60 54 54 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 64 72 78 83 89 65 72 61 56 44 48 34 200 MB DIV 157 145 114 106 86 79 81 38 53 -4 25 39 64 LAND (KM) 45 102 150 145 124 57 -48 -3 79 211 371 481 506 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.3 80.9 81.5 82.1 83.0 83.9 85.0 86.3 87.6 89.1 90.6 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 60 61 68 78 78 38 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -22. -32. -41. -50. -56. -58. -58. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -17. -24. -25. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -26. -27. -28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY