* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962008 11/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 30 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 23 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 31 39 37 35 44 47 40 40 41 41 45 40 SHEAR DIR 206 202 203 209 203 200 193 196 194 184 178 180 191 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 139 138 131 126 123 120 122 125 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 138 134 133 127 122 119 116 118 120 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 72 74 68 59 54 49 49 46 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 71 77 81 90 75 75 46 28 25 26 27 31 200 MB DIV 160 140 114 110 76 107 61 36 0 6 1 6 26 LAND (KM) 217 185 137 79 21 -67 24 167 311 428 482 466 423 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.9 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.7 82.4 83.0 83.6 84.8 86.1 87.4 88.7 90.0 91.3 92.3 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 78 84 70 63 1 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -4. -7. -15. -28. -42. -51. -62. -68. -70. -71. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -17. -23. -32. -38. -40. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -16. -25. -35. -41. -43. -44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 11/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 11/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY