* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 11/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 62 74 91 93 92 88 77 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 62 74 91 93 92 88 77 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 55 59 61 62 63 62 SHEAR (KTS) 32 25 26 24 24 3 19 31 37 34 37 81 107 SHEAR DIR 269 268 261 245 218 195 109 171 193 253 321 4 28 SST (C) 23.3 22.9 22.4 21.9 21.4 19.5 18.2 15.0 11.2 9.3 12.0 13.8 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 90 88 87 80 77 71 68 68 71 74 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 81 80 79 78 74 71 67 66 67 69 71 74 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -59.0 -59.6 -60.6 -61.5 -62.8 -63.4 -63.0 -63.0 -61.7 -60.7 -60.5 -62.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 56 49 47 45 44 46 45 39 41 48 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 16 18 22 25 36 30 20 13 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 177 165 120 95 79 64 -7 -23 -57 -103 -74 -47 -28 200 MB DIV 33 13 2 43 33 34 8 25 48 24 16 -124 -101 LAND (KM) 2001 1902 1805 1657 1513 1158 915 858 1089 1428 853 550 110 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.5 34.6 36.0 37.4 41.1 44.6 48.0 51.1 52.9 52.1 48.4 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 38.9 38.8 39.3 39.7 40.9 41.7 41.3 38.3 31.5 22.8 15.6 10.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 13 14 17 18 17 17 20 24 27 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 12. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 35. 44. 54. 63. 71. 74. 76. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 13. 8. 0. -6. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 32. 44. 61. 65. 64. 61. 49. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 19. 32. 44. 61. 63. 62. 58. 47. 34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 11/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 11/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY