* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 11/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 53 69 84 97 95 91 89 77 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 53 69 84 97 95 91 89 77 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 44 51 55 57 60 62 62 60 SHEAR (KTS) 29 24 22 21 22 25 30 33 39 38 67 110 81 SHEAR DIR 270 265 254 219 183 151 152 186 221 287 331 1 12 SST (C) 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.2 20.5 19.3 16.9 14.3 11.3 9.3 12.2 13.0 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 88 86 83 79 73 69 68 69 72 73 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 79 78 76 72 68 66 66 68 70 71 73 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -59.6 -60.2 -61.2 -61.7 -62.4 -62.1 -62.0 -61.6 -60.6 -59.7 -62.5 -63.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 49 49 47 51 54 47 47 45 49 50 65 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 25 32 39 29 19 16 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 168 133 110 106 110 94 18 8 -71 -112 -52 -37 -69 200 MB DIV 7 3 31 42 77 35 30 23 22 2 -19 -3 -46 LAND (KM) 1875 1750 1626 1452 1283 967 826 828 1066 1444 763 280 191 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.9 36.0 37.6 39.2 42.6 45.6 48.4 51.0 52.8 52.3 49.4 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.4 39.8 40.5 41.1 42.3 42.4 41.7 38.6 31.7 21.5 11.8 4.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 14 17 17 16 15 15 19 27 32 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 10. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 36. 45. 54. 63. 69. 71. 73. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 8. 0. -3. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 37. 53. 67. 66. 63. 62. 49. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 16. 23. 39. 54. 67. 65. 61. 59. 47. 35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 11/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 11/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY