* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL862009 01/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 52 56 56 53 55 57 51 46 41 38 29 21 12 SHEAR DIR 259 259 262 263 271 276 287 283 293 298 309 300 296 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 119 119 120 119 119 120 122 124 121 117 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 112 112 113 111 110 111 115 118 116 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 40 36 35 37 36 37 38 38 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -18 -23 -28 -33 -45 -25 -2 13 14 31 20 14 200 MB DIV -47 -34 -13 -19 -18 -12 -35 -20 -33 -51 -43 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 793 730 668 605 543 445 389 330 242 144 100 66 77 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.2 12.7 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.8 55.4 56.1 56.7 57.8 58.6 59.2 59.9 61.0 62.4 64.0 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 4 5 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 17 19 22 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -8. -13. -25. -41. -57. -68. -77. -79. -75. -70. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -16. -28. -43. -56. -65. -73. -74. -69. -62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -9. -15. -27. -42. -56. -65. -73. -75. -69. -65. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL862009 TEST 01/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL862009 TEST 01/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY