* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * TEST AL852009 03/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 45 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 45 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 53 47 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 55 61 67 67 65 75 74 76 67 64 65 70 71 SHEAR DIR 219 215 218 228 231 236 247 244 237 228 228 232 234 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.2 23.7 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 113 111 110 106 104 104 102 102 100 98 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 109 109 108 107 102 98 99 97 97 96 93 91 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 50 45 42 42 34 28 26 21 19 21 16 13 13 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -20 -32 -31 -46 -46 -70 -53 -38 6 3 10 -8 200 MB DIV 47 35 63 42 17 31 -11 -35 -87 -56 -30 -9 14 LAND (KM) 443 561 685 829 975 1217 1399 1517 1646 1757 1958 1892 1573 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 16.1 16.8 16.6 16.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 57.0 55.8 54.5 53.2 50.5 47.9 45.2 42.7 40.2 37.9 35.1 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 12 13 13 13 14 12 13 12 12 13 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 824 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -14. -23. -33. -52. -71. -89.-102.-113.-119.-120.-120. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 7. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -5. -12. -20. -40. -63. -85.-105.-123.-136.-142.-145. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -5. -12. -20. -40. -63. -85.-105.-123.-136.-142.-145. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852009 TEST 03/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 62.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL852009 TEST 03/25/09 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING