* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * TEST AL802009 04/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 68 76 79 74 81 95 88 94 88 81 72 75 63 SHEAR DIR 260 257 265 266 259 262 259 250 247 248 250 258 255 SST (C) 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.3 22.7 22.1 21.2 20.2 19.3 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 96 100 100 100 100 98 96 94 91 88 84 81 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 94 94 94 94 94 92 90 88 85 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.2 -55.8 -56.4 -56.5 -55.9 -56.1 -55.9 -56.8 -57.6 -58.9 -59.8 -60.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 0 2 700-500 MB RH 11 10 11 12 12 16 16 24 26 29 27 27 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -59 -44 -21 -19 -5 -22 -21 -19 10 34 61 13 200 MB DIV 10 -24 -36 0 -7 -19 13 -11 -4 33 49 19 21 LAND (KM) 1558 1641 1736 1780 1815 1992 2223 1794 1349 898 567 310 286 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.8 20.4 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.8 22.8 25.3 28.0 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 49.7 48.2 46.8 45.4 41.9 38.3 34.2 30.0 25.6 21.2 16.7 12.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 14 14 13 15 17 18 20 21 23 24 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 884 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -4. -18. -40. -68. -91.-109.-115.-116.-118. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 19. 23. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -8. -20. -41. -64. -86.-101.-102. -97. -92. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -8. -20. -41. -64. -86.-101.-102. -97. -92. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802009 TEST 04/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 75.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 41.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802009 TEST 04/01/09 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING